By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria recorded the highest crude production in September, with production surging by more than 170,000 barrels per day, according to a Reuters survey.
The Reuters survey aims to track market supply and is based on shipping data provided by external sources, flow data from Refinitiv Eikon, information from trackers of tankers such as Petro-Logistics and Kpler, and information provided by sources from oil companies, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and consultants.
The country, which produces around 1.6 million barrels per day, was expected to increase by around 17,000 barrels per day each month, in line with plans by the OPEC + alliance to gradually ease production cuts implemented in April 2020. .
However, there were more than 200,000 barrels a day more after Forcados and other problems in August, Reuters cited a company following the OPEC offer.
Nigerian production has recovered from unintentional losses and the group’s main producers have further eased supply restrictions as part of a pact with its allies.
The Forcados terminal’s export outlet was in force majeure in August, limiting supply. Despite this, Nigeria is pumping nearly 100,000 barrels per day less than its OPEC target, as underinvestment restricts production.
The second largest increase came from one of the major exporters, Saudi Arabia, which further increased supply as part of the OPEC + boost in September. Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Algeria recorded smaller increases.
They pumped 27.31 million barrels per day, according to the survey, up 420,000 barrels per day from the revised August estimate.
As a result, production has increased every month since June 2020, except in February.
Production has decreased or has not increased in Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon, due to a lack of production capacity to increase supply.
Iran, which has managed to increase its exports since the fourth quarter despite US sanctions, posted slightly higher production in the month under review.
The country is exempt from OPEC supply restrictions due to the sanctions, although a larger recovery in exports hinges on progress in talks to revive its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers that are currently at a standstill.
Among the two other producers exempted from restrictions, Libyan and Venezuelan production also increased slightly.
The OPEC + deal allows a 400,000 barrels per day increase in production in September from all members, of which 253,000 barrels per day are shared by the 10 OPEC members covered by the agreement, figures showed of OPEC as seen by Reuters.
While OPEC’s 10 members increased production more than that in September, they are still pumping less than expected in the latest deal.
OPEC’s compliance with the promised cuts was 114 percent from 115 percent in August, according to the survey.
OPEC + is meeting on Monday, October 4 to review its policy and is expected to reconfirm plans for monthly increases.